At Online Accountant, we’re diving into how Carney’s leadership, forged in the crucible of global crises, will shape the future for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and Canada’s place in global trade.
According to Statistics Canada (2024), small businesses constitute Canada’s principal economic force through their 98% enterprise dominance and their role as employers to 68% of the private-sector workforce.
Businesses in Canada account for 98% of the total enterprises and utilize 68% of private-sector employment, but face steep taxes alongside intricate rules and minimal financial resources.
Carney’s campaign, rooted in his experience steering the Bank of Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and the Bank of England during Brexit, promised pragmatic solutions.
“We will fight back with everything we have to get the best deal for Canada” (New York Times, April 29, 2025).
Carney’s first act as Prime Minister was to eliminate the consumer carbon tax, a move signed into effect on March 14, 2025, to ease cost-of-living pressures (Reuters, 2025). For SMEs, this signals a broader intent to reduce financial burdens.
The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) reports that 62% of small businesses spend over $7,500 annually on regulatory compliance.
Carney could strategically streamline the Canada Business Corporations Act and GST/HST filings, which 60% of SMEs find onerous.
Online Accountant’s clients often cite tax compliance as a barrier to growth; simplifying these processes could save firms thousands, boosting reinvestment.
Carney’s platform also includes a middle-class tax cut, expected to benefit dual-income families and indirectly support SMEs through increased consumer spending.
Expanding the Small Business Deduction under the Income Tax Act, currently offering a 9% federal corporate tax rate on the first $500,000 of income, could further lighten the load. “Tax relief is a lifeline for small businesses,” says CFIB’s Laura Jones (Globe and Mail, 2023).
Carney’s economic acumen positions him to enhance SME financing. The Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC) disbursed $8.2 billion to 62,000 businesses in 2023 (BDC, 2024).
Carney’s focus on clean energy and housing projects, as outlined in his campaign, could see increased BDC funding, particularly for green SMEs.
A 2024 Deloitte report estimates that a $500 million boost to the Sustainable Development Technology Canada (SDTC) fund could support 1,000 green startups, creating 15,000 jobs.
His global network, including ties to Brookfield Asset Management, suggests a push for public-private partnerships. “Carney’s outsider perspective brings fresh ideas to SME financing,” notes economist David Moscrop.
Online Accountant anticipates that tech and green SMEs could see 20% more funding access by 2026.
Small Business Pain Points (CFIB, 2022)
However, Carney’s focus on sustainability, including maintaining the industrial carbon tax and capping oil and gas emissions, could increase compliance costs for energy-related SMEs.
Critics, like David Staples, suggest his policies might lead to “endless energy audits and reports,” potentially burdening small businesses with red tape.
Fitch Ratings warned on April 30, 2025, that Canada risks losing its AAA credit rating if spending plans are fully implemented, which could lead to economic volatility.
Carney’s global experience positions him to navigate Canada’s trade relationships, particularly amid tensions with the U.S. and opportunities with other nations.
The U.S. absorbs 75% of Canadian exports ($582 billion in 2023, Statistics Canada), governed by CUSMA. Trump’s 25% tariffs and annexation threats were key election issues.
Carney vowed to negotiate as “two sovereign nations,” but retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods could raise costs for SMEs reliant on American inputs.
His European visits suggest a strategy to diversify, potentially mitigating U.S. risks.
Mexico offers growth potential for SMEs in automotive and tech supply chains, and Carney could expand the CanExport program, which aided 2,000 SMEs with $50 million in 2023.
China, with $100 billion in trade with Canada, is a key market, but Carney’s cautious stance suggests diversification, with a 2023 Brookings paper estimating $5 billion in additional SME exports from Indo-Pacific markets.
Carney’s focus on digital trade could revolutionize SME exports, which reached $10 billion online in 2023.
Policies like tax incentives for e-commerce platforms could double this by 2030, but PIPEDA and forthcoming privacy laws may complicate cross-border data flows, a concern for 40% of tech SMEs (CFIB, 2024).
His emphasis on sustainability aligns with global trends, potentially opening markets in clean energy and AI, but compliance costs could pose hurdles.
Carney’s book Values: Building a Better World for All (2021) reveals a values-led economy, emphasizing sustainability and inclusivity, which could benefit SMEs adopting green practices but challenge those in traditional sectors.
His experience during Brexit and COVID-19 suggests resilience, but social media posts highlight concerns about potential EU-style regulations capping oil and gas production, raising taxes etc. We advise clients to monitor these developments, using programs like CanExport for growth.
Mark Carney’s leadership is likely to provide tax incentives, together with simplified regulations and market entry to small Canadian businesses during their international trade endeavours. His digital and sustainability trade initiatives have the potential to generate new trading possibilities. Canadian companies must continue watching for both regulatory compliance expenses and economic market fluctuations. Carney’s statement, “In trade as in hockey, Canada will win,” indicates that SMEs should also capitalize on this moment to succeed.
