Election day, April 28, 2025, stands as the starting point of historical change for Canada. People in Canada display both feelings of hope and frustration across the country. The April 16 Abacus Data reveals an almost equal distribution of political support where the Liberals hold 40% and the Conservatives maintain 38%.
The charming Pierre Poilievre leads the Conservative Party, which currently holds the prevailing public sentiment.
It is worth mentioning that Canadian citizens currently endure mortgage price surges along with rising consumer prices and face tough measures from American President Donald Trump’s administration through their tariffs on Canadian imports which has led to widespread calls for change.
The audience joins Poilievre at his jam-packed gatherings to chant the message of “lower taxes as well as less bureaucracy while campaigning for a “Canada First” approach.
Will a Conservative wave ignite prosperity for small businesses and the broader economy, or will global headwinds derail it? If the Liberals, now steered by the steady Mark Carney, hold on, can they weather the Trump storm?
In this blog by Online Accountant, today we’re dissecting the stakes for Canadian small businesses, the economy, and Canada’s global standing. This isn’t just an election; it’s a reckoning.
Let’s take the example of a small café in Vancouver, with its owner drowning in taxes and supply chain costs, suddenly breathing easier. The Conservatives pledge to slash the lowest income tax bracket from 15% to 12.75%, boosting consumers’ disposable income to spend at local shops. They also promise to axe GST on new homes under $1.3 million, sparking construction and creating jobs for tradespeople.
Most crucially, their “two-for-one” regulation rule, cutting two existing regulations for every new one, aims to free businesses from bureaucratic quicksand. “We’ll unshackle entrepreneurs,” Poilievre vowed in Vaughan, Ontario, on April 22, 2025.
The proposed change could produce substantial advantages for small organizations. The 2023 KPMG survey has shown that 79% of Canadian small and medium-sized businesses find their tax rates harmful to their ability to compete because of lower U.S. taxation. Capital gain tax deferment for reinvestments within Canada constitutes a plan by the Conservatives to fuel business expansion.
Whether it’s a technology-related startup in Waterloo channelling profits into R&D without a tax penalty or a Halifax bakery upgrading ovens, “a Conservative government would likely prioritize free trade agreements, boosting export-driven SMBs,” notes a 2024 TEC Canada report.
Let’s be real, it’s not all rosy. Poilievre’s plan banks on cutting $10 billion in consultant fees and foreign aid to fund tax breaks and infrastructure. Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page cautions that a looming recession could strain these ambitions. “Their fiscal math assumes growth we may not see,” Page told CBC in 2025. If consumer spending falters, retail and hospitality businesses could suffer. Small businesses must brace for volatility.
The Conservatives aim to revoke the Impact Assessment Act (C-69), dubbed a roadblock to energy projects, and introduce “shovel-ready zones” near resource deposits to expedite approvals. This could benefit small construction and supply chain firms. Removing the federal industrial carbon tax is expected to raise production prices for environmentally focused companies, especially those operating renewable energy enterprises that benefit from green incentives.
A Conservative victory would reverberate globally. Poilievre’s “Canada First” rhetoric mirrors Trump’s “America First,” but he’s sharply criticized Trump’s annexation threats. The Conservatives plan to meet NATO’s 2% GDP defence target, funded by “revenue from expanded U.S. trade.” This could stabilize Canada-U.S. relations, which is vital since 75% of Canadian exports flow south.
Yet, Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel, aluminum, cars, and more threaten havoc. Economist Randall Morck warns, “Stock prices have tanked, eroding wealth.” Small businesses exporting to the U.S., like Ontario’s auto parts makers, face higher costs. With the Canadian dollar at a five-year low of 68.89 U.S. cents, imports are pricier, squeezing retail margins.
Poilievre’s plan to exit UN commitments like the Paris Agreement could tarnish Canada’s green image, impacting eco-conscious small businesses. “Abandoning climate goals risks alienating European trade partners,” says Sarah Laframboise of Evidence for Democracy. Small businesses in sustainable sectors may lose their competitive edge.
The Liberal Party extends useful relief to small business operators through their campaign promises. The elimination of credit card swipe fees would present an annual $500 million windfall to corner stores and cafés and their merchants.
The decision to keep permanent resident admissions limited to 395,000 in 2025 would potentially create more competitive labour conditions for hospitality and other industries. Carney admitted that housing shortages together with educational gaps require a short delay while acknowledging their negative impact on labour-intensive small businesses.
Liberals plan to streamline procurement laws to accelerate military equipment purchases, potentially aiding small defence contractors. A $100 million water security technology fund could spark innovation in tech startups. However, retaining the industrial carbon tax may burden traditional industries, like manufacturing, impacting their cost structures.
A Conservative government could align ideologically with U.S. Republicans. “The Conservatives share values with the GOP,” says Matt Skipp of SW8 Asset Management. However, Poilievre’s reciprocal tariffs on U.S. goods could escalate trade tensions, hurting small businesses reliant on cross-border supply chains, like British Columbia’s lumber exporters.
Liberals, under Carney, prioritize diplomacy. The Canada Strong stance of Prime Minister Carney against border expansion demands from Trump has received support from Canadians yet his willingness to talk about trade demonstrates practicality in his approach. The potential stability of commerce through this policy would help small exporters but the approach may disturb progressive voters who oppose closer relations with Trump.
The Conservative tidal wave reflects raw frustration. Home prices hit $735,900 in 2024, pricing out young Canadians. Food inflation drove two million to food banks. Poilievre’s “Axe the tax” slogan channels this anger, promising immediate relief. “Liberals inflated housing costs,” he charged in Gatineau, Quebec. Polls show that 51% of Canadians crave change, down from 57%, but still formidable.
The 2025 election is Canada’s crossroads. Whether Conservatives ignite a small business renaissance or Liberals steer a steady course, the outcome will redefine the economy and Canada’s global role. As Poilievre or Carney steps forward, small businesses must adapt to seize opportunities and dodge pitfalls. The world is watching—Canada’s next chapter begins now.
